A recent posting on a discussion group asked "Will book readers move from books to smart phones?" What followed was a discussion of whether the new offering of the Kindle Reader for smart phones would be viable. Would people really be willing to read books on their phone? I found this to be a terribly interesting question. It made me get out and put on my prognostication had.
As someone who has been active in the broadcast industry now for over thirty years, I can attest to how much that industry has changed because of the advent of free content via the internet. It also makes sense that the publishing industry would be similarly affected. It is largely the availability of free information on the internet that has lead to the downfall of the newspaper industry. Very few markets are left with competing daily papers any more.
As to whether people will make the move to smart phones for the consumption of books, I would have to say that it can never hurt anyone to offer a variety of delivery conduits for their content; that is, provided those conduits are secure and enable to content owner to retain their rights to the content licensing.
I think that there will definitely be people who will make the leap to the new delivery method for any media. Additionally, let us not forget what Ken Olsen (Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation) so infamously proclaimed back in 1977: "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
I would go so far as to say that there is no content delivery method you can conceive of that someone will not feel is cool enough to adopt. The question really should be "will it have enough mass appeal to reach its 'tipping point'?" or "will the new technology replace the old technology."
Here too, let's look at history for the answer. Any technology that provides a good solution to a problem (be it one of convenience, time or labor savings, or life improvement) will remain viable regardless of the new technologies that come along as long as they continue to provide the benefits they were designed to provide. Who hasn't used a telephone? There is probably at least one in the room with you as you read this. That technology is about a century-and-a-half old, but it is still in use. Why? Because although there are alternatives to the technology, it still is a fundamentally good technology that still serves the purpose it was designed to.
If the new technology is a sufficient improvement over the old, the old will die off quickly. How many of you reading this own an 8-Track Cartridge player? I feel pretty safe saying that even if you have used one, nobody reading this currently has one. Why? It was a clunky technology. Cassette tapes and CDs came along and much better fulfilled the needs of the 8-Track marketplace. That technology was invented in the late fifties and was more-or-less dead by the middle of the seventies.
So, will people be willing to read books on their phones? Sure. Will enough people adopt it to make it viable? My gut feeling is yes. These days a phone is no longer the device that Bell called Watson on. It is an alarm clock, a music player, a diary, and a television. So why not a library as well? We'll have to watch and see.
Wherever you are today, I hope that you're having a great day!
Don Bergquist – April 08, 2010 – Lakewood, Colorado, USA
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